The results were no surprise. The country wanted a radical change. The massive turnout leaves no doubt that the results represent the mainstream opinion in Tunisia, as more than 90% of voters went to the polls, despite endless queues. Tunisian citizens were determined to express their voice, at all costs.
While many in Tunisia fear that the country might be heading towards the establishment of an Islamic state, al-Nahda’s victory does not mean that Islamists will dominate the country. Since the beginning al-Nahda made it clear that despite their attachment to some religious principles, they favoured a pragmatic approach. Moreover, even though they have won over 40% of the votes, the Islamists have indicated that they will build alliances ; and these are the ones that will really make a difference.
At this stage it is still hard to determine what kind of alliances al-Nahda will seek to build. But one thing is clear : the Islamist party will be unable to act in the soon-to-be-constituted parliament without taking into consideration the secular parties. The other main winners of the legislative elections are parties that do not consent to conservative religious points of view, such as the Congress for Republic, Ettakatol, and the coalition of the Popular List.
But instead of worrying about the “Islamisation” of Tunisia, it is worth analysing why al-Nahda was favoured by Tunisians both inside and outside the country, and how to assist the construction of an open democratic society that respects religion without necessarily being submitted to it.
Tunisia is a country of two worlds. Despite the appealing resorts that used to attract many international tourists to Tunisia, the majority of Tunisians used to live in rather precarious conditions. While the Ben Ali regime focused its attention on the development of the main touristic coastal zones, no real effort was made to raise the level of the inner cities. While the main touristic places enjoyed a good level of service provision and infrastructure, the central and southern parts of the country are under-developed, with bad roads and poor infrastructure to link cities and towns, All this has led to enormous frustration and a deep desire for change.
After the fall of Ben Ali, al-Nahda managed to present itself as a party close to the people’s demands, listening and interacting with the population, while some “secular” parties sounded more distant from the average Tunisian citizen’s concerns, preferring to theorise from afar on the country’s future. Seemingly, amongst al-Nahda priorities are the respect for women’s rights ; guaranteeing the country’s liberty of thought as a precondition to re-launch touristic activities ; maintaining Tunisia’s regional and international traditional diplomatic alliances ; and promoting free trade and a liberal economy.
While the future of Libya is far more certain and in Egypt there are speculations about the Muslim Brotherhood, along with some radical Salafi groups, possibly achieving strong positions in the next parliamentary elections, al-Nahda, which has proclaimed to follow the example of Turkey’s ruling AKP, may end up being one of the less conservative democratically-elected Islamic movements in the Middle East and North Africa region.
Tunisia remains the most promising and the less complicated example of an ongoing democratic process in the MENA. Islamists in Tunisia will have to show they can be pragmatic otherwise risk a counter-revolution.
by Barah Mikail, Senior Fellow on Middle East and North Africa, FRIDE (www.fride.org )
28 octobre
http://www.affaires-strategiques.info/spip.php?article5784
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